“This map makes the likelihood of a Clinton turnaround sufficient to deny Trump the presidency very unlikely.”


SR 1218 – UPI Poll – Trump Takes Leads in Electoral College

Good afternoon,

I’m still reporting on polls.

For the first time this year, a major polling operation now says that Donald Trump has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the only race that matters – the Electoral College race.

The poll was conducted between Sept. 12 and 25th. It tracks 250 likely voters in each state every week. Results are tabulated every two weeks.

Although the UPI’s national poll shows Clinton with a slight lead of 2/3rds of one percent, Trump tromps the ailing former Secretary of State by an Electoral College margin of 292 to 246 with 270 needed for victory.
What’s changed? Trump is now leading in Florida by 1.8%, Iowa by 2%, North Carolina by 2.5%, and Ohio by 1%. But the two new surprises into the Trump camp are Pennsylvania where Trump now leads by 1.3% and Virginia where Trump leads by a whopping 3.4% margin.

Among the swing states, Clinton is ahead in Colorado (3.5%), Michigan (4.4%), Minnesota (4%), Nevada (0.5%), New Hampshire (0.9%) and Wisconsin (3.4%).

So, going just by the UPI results, the Electoral College map looks like this:

However, in our previous analysis in our report #1197, we have already given Colorado to Trump. The latest polls show Trump with a 4% lead now, and so adding in the momentum factor, Colorado will clearly be Trump’s in the end.
The same for Nevada and New Hampshire. So our previous total was Trump 281, Clinton 257.

However, for months now, we’ve seen Trump moving up in both Pennsylvania and Virginia overcoming large double digit leads for Clinton in the initial weeks of the national campaign, so once again, momentum at this stage of the race is nearly impossible to reverse.

So this is our current best estimate of how this race will end up. We are now giving Trump both Pennsylvania and Virginia for a new total of Clinton 226 electoral votes and Trump breezing easily in for the win with 312.

One question is will Trump get enough support from rural upstate Maine to win an extra 2 electoral votes there – a feat thought impossible since 1992.

This map makes the likelihood of a Clinton turnaround sufficient to deny Trump the presidency very unlikely. For example, if Trump holds Florida, then it is virtually impossible for Clinton to win at this point. Even if she won back Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, and all of Maine’s 4 votes – so the map looked like this – a complete sweep of the Northeast, and the West coast, she would still fall 6 votes short.

As of today, a much more likely scenario after Trump’s momentum factor fully plays out, is that Trump also takes New Mexico and any of three north central states Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota.

So if the final map looks like this, the final Electoral College vote would be 333 for Trump and 205 for Clinton. I’m still reporting from Washington. Good Day
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